A Strategic Perspective for Green Revolution 2.0: Applying Game Theory Based Decision-Making Frameworks for Smart and Natural Farming in India

In this conceptual paper, the author develops and presents a strategic decision-making framework that applies game theory to evaluate smart and natural farming approaches in India. In the face of increasing pressures from climate change, resource scarcity, and evolving socio-economic landscapes, agriculture must adapt to the challenges of a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world. When integrated with the Provision of Urban Amenities in Rural Areas (PURA) framework, VUCA offers a dynamic system perspective that contextualizes uncertainty and institutional capacity in farming systems. This study applies a modified Spence signaling model to capture how farmers—categorized as smart or natural versus conventional—choose to signal their sustainability credentials in an environment of asymmetric information. Using a combination of payoff matrix modelling, Bayesian belief updating, and evolutionary game simulations, the paper identifies strategic equilibria under varying levels of policy support, consumer trust, and signal cost. Farmers’ decisions to adopt smart technologies or organic certifications are modelled as costly but credible signals of quality. These signals are then interpreted by receivers such as consumers, investors, or policymakers, who in turn adjust their support or market preferences. The analysis reveals conditions under which separating, pooling, and semi-separating equilibria emerge, and how these outcomes impact farmer behaviour and systemic sustainability. Case studies from Indian states such as Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Punjab demonstrate how real-world farming programs mirror theoretical outcomes under different signalling strategies. The study also presents a robust methodological structure, combining conceptual modelling with policy simulation and validation through comparative cases. By integrating environmental, technological, and institutional perspectives, this paper contributes a hybrid strategic framework aligned with India’s Green Revolution 2.0 goals. It offers practical recommendations for policy design, infrastructure planning, and market mechanisms that support the scaling of sustainable agricultural practices through credible signalling and game-theoretic insights.